Your Seven Day Forecast

2022-7-22

RICHMOND, VA - Governor Glenn Youngkin today announced that Virginia ended the fiscal year 2022 with a $1.94 billion general fund revenue surplus. On a fiscal year-to-date basis, total revenue collections rose 16.3 percent, based on preliminary data.  

“While I am pleased that our additional revenue can be reinvested in Virginia, the Commonwealth’s general fund revenue surplus confirms that Virginians have been overtaxed for way too long,” said Governor Glenn Youngkin. “As inflation hits another 40-year high, I’m proud that our budget provides almost $4 billion in tax relief to Virginians, the largest tax relief in the Commonwealth’s history. We have a lot of work left to do to recover from the pandemic, but Virginia’s economy is demonstrating promising economic and company growth with major companies such as Boeing, Raytheon, and LEGO moving their headquarters to Virginia.”  

“Fiscal 2022 was an extraordinary year for revenues and finished strong. However, there are a number of critical economic issues that we will continue to watch very closely as we put our plan together for the future. We are encouraged by the continuing strength of payroll withholding and retail sales taxes, which increased by 9.5 percent, indicating that Virginia’s underlying economic foundation is strong,” said Secretary of Finance Stephen Cummings.  

Virginia’s strong labor market has produced 79,818 jobs since January, driving growth in payroll withholding. There were 124,878 more Virginians employed in May 2022 than there were in May 2021, an increase of 3.5 percent year-over-year. Although recent trends are encouraging, Virginia has yet to recover more than 133,000 jobs that were lost during the pandemic (now at 96.9 percent of pre-pandemic levels) while our key competitor states have all exceeded pre-pandemic employment levels. While the Commonwealth underperformed the nation in jobs recovered since the pandemic, ranking 47th overall, momentum is building and Virginia is now ranked 15th among the states in employment growth for the first four months of 2022.  

Analysis of Fiscal Year 2022 Revenues 

Based on Preliminary Data 

  • Based on preliminary data, Fiscal Year 2022 ended with a $1.94 billion general fund revenue surplus. General fund revenues, excluding transfers, rose 16.3 percent for the year compared to fiscal year 2021, exceeding the forecast of 8.5 percent growth. 
  • Payroll withholding and sales tax collections, 69 percent of total revenues, and the best indicator of current economic activity in the Commonwealth, finished $193.5 million or 1.0 percent ahead of the forecast.  
  • Payroll withholding grew of 9.5 percent, exceeding the forecast of 9.0 percent growth.  
  • Sales tax collections increased 9.4 percent as compared to the annual forecast of 6.5 percent. 
  • Nonwithholding income tax collections finished the year ahead of expectations, up 30.5 percent. This was mainly due to a 40.9 percent increase in final tax payments to the Department of Taxation.  
  • Individual income tax refunds were a positive to the forecast as the average check size decreased. Tax refunds were $280.2 million below expectations, a positive to the bottom line. 
  • Corporate income tax collections increased 30.5 percent for the year, behind the annual forecast of 32.6 percent. 
  • A complete accounting of all final revenue sources will be available after final year-end close and will be released on August 19 when the Governor speaks at the Joint Money Committee Meeting. 

Advisories and Warnings Issued this Week

(Richmond, VA) — This week, portions of the state have experienced excessive heat and humidity prompting advisories and warnings to be issued. Temperatures have reached the mid- to upper 90s, and are expected to be near 100 degrees this weekend. The heat index, describing how the temperature feels to the human body, may be in excess of 110 degrees. These conditions are dangerous to any person outdoors, and especially so for older adults, young children, and people with existing medical conditions, such as heart disease. Heat-related illnesses can also impact those with outdoor jobs or individuals participating in recreational activities, most notably during the hottest times of the day.

Heat-related illness occurs when body temperature rises faster than the body can cool itself. The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) advises the best way to avoid heat injury is prevention.

“Every year, more than 600 people in the U.S. die of heat-related illness, and many others experience hospitalization, so it is imperative to ensure that all Virginians take the necessary precautions to avoid heat injury,” said State Health Commissioner Colin M. Greene, MD, MPH. “With two more months of summer remaining, it is important the public understands the steps that can be taken to protect themselves and others. The first step is to look at the weather forecast and plan accordingly. For extreme heat, the best prevention is to remain indoors in an air-conditioned location. If you must be outdoors, avoid the afternoon hours, seek shade, and limit physical activity to a minimum. Drink water or sports drinks at least once an hour; don’t wait to be thirsty. Take frequent rest breaks in the shade and wear loose-fitting, light-colored, lightweight clothing.”

It is crucial to recognize the warning signs of heat illness.

  • Heat Cramps: Heavy sweating and painful, involuntary muscle spasms.  Move to a cool area until symptoms resolve; consider ceasing outdoor activity for a period of time.
  • Heat Exhaustion: Heavy sweating; pale, cool clammy skin; muscle cramps; fatigue; weakness; dizziness; headache; nausea or vomiting and fainting. Seek a cool area right away; cease outdoor activity for the day.
  • Heat Stroke: A high body temperature (103 degrees or higher); warm and dry skin; fast pulse; headache; dizziness; nausea; confusion and unconsciousness. This is a medical emergency. Take measures to rapidly cool the person while dialing 911.

For more information, visit the Virginia Department of Health website at: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/news/extreme-heat-and-heat-related-illnesses/. Additional resources are available for severe weather preparedness and safety information. In addition, the VDH Office of Epidemiology has a surveillance dashboard to monitor emergency department and urgent care visits for heat-related illness.